Superforecasting

These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.

Author: Philip Tetlock

Publisher: Random House

ISBN: 1448166594

Category: Social Science

Page: 352

View: 901

The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

Superforecasting

They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group.

Author: Philip Tetlock

Publisher: Crown Publishing Group (NY)

ISBN: 9780804136693

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 352

View: 710

From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic.

Superforecasting

Superforecasting. The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan
Gardner Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review By Instaread Please Note This is
key takeaways, analysis & review Copyright.

Author: Instaread

Publisher: Instaread

ISBN: 1944195483

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 37

View: 214

Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts… PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting:Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways

SUMMARY Superforecasting The Art And Science Of Prediction By Philip E Tetlock And Dan Gardner

"On the other hand, some less well-known forecasters reveal surprising results. Here is their secret: they don't have any particular gift, but they do have a method. *Buy now the summary of this book for the modest price of a cup of coffee!

Author: Shortcut Edition

Publisher: Shortcut Edition

ISBN:

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 35

View: 990

* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. By reading this summary, you will discover the art of making reliable and rigorous forecasts. You will also discover that : many experts give forecasts that are too vague and difficult to verify; the field of forecasting is sorely lacking in rigorous evaluations; the best forecasters rely on method and not on innate abilities; any forecast must be supported by a numerical probability, an assumption with clearly defined terms; a good forecaster is rigorous, intellectually humble and able to consider a multitude of perspectives. In the media as well as in government, forecasting plays a central role. They have an impact on all the strategies of leaders. A battery of influential experts is therefore constantly in demand. But how reliable are their diagnoses? Very competent people often make vague or even erroneous estimates. "On the other hand, some less well-known forecasters reveal surprising results. Here is their secret: they don't have any particular gift, but they do have a method. *Buy now the summary of this book for the modest price of a cup of coffee!

Superforecasting

And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament.

Author: Philip Tetlock

Publisher:

ISBN: 9781101905562

Category:

Page: 340

View: 337


Summary of Superforecasting

Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting:*Overview of the book*Important People*Key Takeaways*Analysis of Key Takeaways

Author: Instaread Summaries

Publisher: Idreambooks

ISBN: 9781945251832

Category: Nature

Page: 36

View: 847

Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting:* Overview of the book* Important People* Key Takeaways* Analysis of Key Takeaways

Tetlock and Gardner s Superforecasting Summary

This is a Summary of Tetlock and Gardner's New York Times Bestseller: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of PredictionEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new ...

Author: Ant Hive Media

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

ISBN: 9781532905490

Category:

Page: 28

View: 211

This is a Summary of Tetlock and Gardner's New York Times Bestseller: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people-including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer-who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future-whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life-and is destined to become a modern classic. Available in a variety of formats, this summary is aimed for those who want to capture the gist of the book but don't have the current time to devour all 352 pages. You get the main summary along with all of the benefits and lessons the actual book has to offer. This summary is not intended to be used without reference to the original book.

A Joosr Guide to Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Author: Joosr

Publisher:

ISBN: 9781785673405

Category:

Page: 18

View: 986


Guide to Philip E Tetlock s Superforecasting

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS A GUIDE TO THE ORIGINAL BOOK. Guide to Philip E. Tetlock's & et al Superforecasting Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting.

Author: Eureka

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

ISBN: 9781544918228

Category:

Page: 38

View: 559

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS A GUIDE TO THE ORIGINAL BOOK. Guide to Philip E. Tetlock's & et al Superforecasting Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts... Inside this companion: -Overview of the book -Important People -Key Insights -Analysis of Key Insights

Summary of Superforecasting

PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book.

Author: Instaread

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

ISBN: 9781530127016

Category:

Page: 40

View: 139

PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts... Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting: Overview of the book Important People Key Takeaways Analysis of Key Takeaways About the Author With Instaread, you can get the key takeaways and analysis of a book in 15 minutes. We read every chapter, identify the key takeaways and analyze them for your convenience.

Superforecasting

PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book.

Author: Instaread

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

ISBN: 9781522758204

Category:

Page: 36

View: 521

PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts... Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting: Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways About the Author With Instaread, you can get the key takeaways and analysis of a book in 15 minutes. We read every chapter, identify the key takeaways and analyze them for your convenience.

Superforecasting by Philip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Author: Instaread

Publisher:

ISBN: 9781522758204

Category: Economic forecasting

Page: 37

View: 664


Superforecasting Or Snafu

Extending the research using historical and contemporary case studies of senior US Army Generals, including interviews of General David Petraeus and other high-ranking officials, I find that rejection of these institutional habits and ...

Author: David L. Raugh

Publisher:

ISBN:

Category:

Page: 137

View: 733

What is the impact of military institutional tendencies and habits on U.S. Army senior officer forecasting accuracy and how does this forecasting ability shape success in battle? Military leaders plan operations based on the forecasted strengths and vulnerabilities of their adversary. Negative habits, such as limited option development, confirmation bias, doctrinal overreliance, and over-consideration of sunk costs, inhibit effective forecasting. The tempo of the modern battlefield, hierarchical culture, and institutional tendencies of the US Army may promote and reinforce these habits. I surveyed Colonels in US Army War College programs to measure their individual tendencies, levels of education, and accuracy in forecasting events during a three to twelve-month future. Quantitative analysis of the resulting data shows that these habits are present and negatively affect forecasting ability; additionally, higher levels of education positively affect forecast accuracy, possibly counteracting the effects of negative institutional tendencies and habits. Extending the research using historical and contemporary case studies of senior US Army Generals, including interviews of General David Petraeus and other high-ranking officials, I find that rejection of these institutional habits and tendencies enabled superior forecasting, leading to battlefield success. I conclude by examining how educational levels of commanding generals in the Iraq War affected military success. Exploratory quantitative analysis of data collected from the US Army historical archives shows that higher levels of education positively affected significant activities within the general's assigned areas.

Future Babble

"--Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television.

Author: Dan Gardner

Publisher: Plume

ISBN: 9780452297579

Category: Psychology

Page: 320

View: 688

"Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them." -Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it. Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.

The Science of Fear

An analysis of the scientific causes of irrational fear offers insight into the brain's role in causing people to experience and react to fear, in a report that explains how heightened fear in the post-9/11 world is dangerously intersecting ...

Author: Daniel Gardner

Publisher: Penguin

ISBN: 9780452295469

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 351

View: 731

An analysis of the scientific causes of irrational fear offers insight into the brain's role in causing people to experience and react to fear, in a report that explains how heightened fear in the post-9/11 world is dangerously intersecting with biologically driven responses.

Factfulness

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. New York: Crown, 2015.
The Economist[1]. “The tragedy of the high seas.” Economist, February 22, 2014.
gapm.io/xeconsea. . “Hans Rosling at World Bank: Open Data.” Filmed May 22 ...

Author: Hans Rosling

Publisher: Hachette UK

ISBN: 1473637481

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 352

View: 568

'One of the most important books I've ever read - an indispensable guide to thinking clearly about the world' BILL GATES 'A hopeful book about the potential for human progress when we work off facts rather than our inherent biases' BARACK OBAMA The international bestseller, inspiring and revelatory, filled with lively anecdotes and moving stories, Factfulness is an urgent and essential book that will change the way you see the world, and make you realise things are better than you thought. *#1 Sunday Times bestseller * New York Times bestseller * Observer 'best brainy book of the decade' * Irish Times bestseller * audiobook bestseller * Guardian bestseller *

The Fashion Forecasters

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. London: Random House,
2015. Tham, Mathilda. “The Futures of Futures Studies in Fashion?” in Routledge
Handbook of Sustainability and Fashion, edited by Kate Fletcher and Mathilda ...

Author: Regina Lee Blaszczyk

Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing

ISBN: 1350017159

Category: Design

Page: 296

View: 340

The fashion business has been collecting and analyzing information about colors, fabrics, silhouettes, and styles since the 18th century - activities that have long been shrouded in mystery. The Fashion Forecasters is the first book to reveal the hidden history of color and trend forecasting and to explore its relevance to the fashion business of the past two centuries. It sheds light on trend forecasting in the industrial era, the profession's maturation during the modernist moment of the 20th century, and its continued importance in today's digital fast-fashion culture. Based on in-depth archival research and oral history interviews, The Fashion Forecasters examines the entrepreneurs, service companies, and consultants that have worked behind the scenes to connect designers and retailers to emerging fashion trends in Europe, North America, and Asia. Here you will read about the trend studios, color experts, and international trade fairs that formalized the prediction process in the modern era, and hear the voices of leading contemporary practitioners at international forecasting companies such as the Doneger Group in New York and WGSN in London. Probing the inner workings of the global fashion system, The Fashion Forecasters blends history, biography, and ethnography into a highly readable cultural narrative.

Perfectly Confident

In this essential guide, he shows how to become perfectly confident—how to strive for and maintain the well-calibrated, adaptive confidence that can elevate all areas of our lives.

Author: Don A. Moore

Publisher: HarperCollins

ISBN: 0062887777

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 272

View: 931

An expert on the psychology of decision making at Berkeley’s Haas School of Business helps readers calibrate their confidence, arguing that some confidence is good, but overconfidence can hinder growth. A surge of confidence can feel fantastic—offering a rush of energy, even a dazzling vision of the future. It can give us courage and bolster our determination when facing adversity. But if that self-assurance leads us to pursue impossible goals, it can waste time, money, and energy. Self-help books and motivational speakers tell us that the more confident we are, the better. But this way of thinking can lead to enormous trouble. Decades of research demonstrates that we often have an over-inflated sense of self and are rarely as good as we believe. Perfectly Confident is the first book to bring together the best psychological and economic studies to explain exactly what confidence is, when it can be helpful, and when it can be destructive in our lives. Confidence is an attitude that takes into account both personal feelings and the facts. Don Moore identifies the ways confidence behaves in real life and raises thought-provoking questions. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor? Moore reminds us that the key to success is to avoid being both over- and under-confident. In this essential guide, he shows how to become perfectly confident—how to strive for and maintain the well-calibrated, adaptive confidence that can elevate all areas of our lives.

Identifying Superforecasters in Online Market Research via Advertisement Testing Surveys

A. Study area The primary read of this study was centered around 2 important
reads: Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction by P. Tetlock [1] and
Gamification - Game On!: A look at how gaming techniques can transform your ...

Author: Ruhaim Izmeth

Publisher: GRIN Verlag

ISBN: 3668470855

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 28

View: 557

Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2016 in the subject Communications - Public Relations, Advertising, Marketing, Social Media, grade: 3.75, , course: Masters in IT, language: English, abstract: This research is inspired by the result of the works of Professor Tetlock on prediction science in the geopolitical and economics domains. He suggests that some non-experts are better than experts in predicting the future. This research attempts to identify if a group of individuals with high prediction skill exists in the general public by testing on ad testing surveys. Modern businesses spend billions of dollars on branding and advertising of their products. Ad testing is commonly used as a tool to gauge the success and effectiveness of such campaigns. A problem faced by ad testing surveys is that the main campaign has to be kept on hold until the survey data is collected. Usually, larger the sample size the longer the delay. If a smaller group of forecasters are able to predict the opinion of a larger sample, the delay faced in ad testing surveys could be minimized. Data from a prediction survey collected from 659 subjects living in the UK who predicted the best ads from set of 16 ad-pairs, were analyzed in this research. The analysis found that few individuals were able to predict more successfully and with greater confidence than others. Nonetheless, more research in the same domain with greater vigor is needed to fortify the claim.

The Trend Forecaster s Handbook

Sharp, in-depth and highly visual, this is the fully revised textbook and teaching aid for students, tutors and in-house learning and development teams keen to know more about the world of trends, forecasting, innovation thinking and ...

Author: Martin Raymond

Publisher:

ISBN: 9781786273840

Category:

Page: 240

View: 808

Sharp, in-depth and highly visual, this is the fully revised textbook and teaching aid for students, tutors and in-house learning and development teams keen to know more about the world of trends, forecasting, innovation thinking and strategic foresight. Designed and written as a practical 'how to' guide for design, marketing, brand and innovation studies students, updated chapters include the latest research and industry case studies on superforecasting, three horizon scanning, scenario planning, foresight framework building and the creation and running of your own trend and innovation sprints. Students also have a chance to mix and merge the worlds of forecasting with future studies as we look at how techniques and processes such as the Delphi Method, cross-impact analysis, futures wheels and backcasting are being used by next generation forecasters to expand the ways they map, assess and define the needs and behaviours of tomorrow's consumers.